Look behind the 3.8 per cent increase in CPI in October
Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, November 9th, by title: perspective behind the 3.8% increase in CPI in October
Xinhua News Agency reporters an Bei, Chen Weiwei, Yuan Junbao, Chen Aiping
Consumer price (CPI) rose 3.8 per cent in October from a year earlier, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 9th. Why does CPI continue to expand? What's the next price trend? How can the basic livelihood of the masses be guaranteed? Around these hot issues of social concern, the reporter interviewed relevant people.
The rise in pork prices accounted for 2/3 of the total year-on-year increase in CPI.
"the prices of fruits and vegetables have dropped, especially apples and pears, which have risen very sharply in the early days, but pork prices have gone up a little higher." Shanghai resident Liu Juan told reporters that recently, the family ate more fish and shrimp, crucian carp, grass carp, belt fish prices have been relatively stable, pork prices have risen, relatively speaking, beef, mutton, poultry performance-to-price ratio is even higher.
The rise and fall of the prices of major consumer goods affect the consumption choices of ordinary people.
As has been the trend in recent years, the structural pull in the price rise in October is still evident. Food prices rose 15.5 per cent year on year, an increase of 4.3 percentage points, affecting the CPI rise of about 3.05 percentage points; Non-food prices rose 0.9 per cent, down 0.1 per cent, affecting CPI gains of just 0.7 per cent.
In food, the price of fresh vegetables fell by 10.2%, and the price of fresh fruit changed from rising to falling by 0.3%. The combined impact of the two factors on CPI decreased by about 0.28%. Pork prices rose 101.3%, affecting the CPI rise of about 2.43 percentage points, accounting for nearly 2/3 of the total year-on-year increase in CPI. Beef, mutton, chicken, duck and eggs rose between 12.3 per cent and 21.4 per cent, affecting CPI by about 0.41 percentage points.
In a recent interview in Shouguang, Shandong Province, the reporter learned that in October, the vegetable price index of Shouguang Agricultural products Logistics Park fell by 6.8% month-on-month, down 24.2% from the same period last year. Among them, kidney beans, cabbage, leafy vegetables, root vegetables and so on fell significantly compared with last month. "in October, vegetables grew well in the north, the supply was relatively adequate, and vegetable prices showed seasonal declines." Sui Yumei, head of the price index center of the agricultural products logistics park, said.
Among non-food products, health care, education, culture and entertainment, and clothing prices rose 2.1 per cent, 1.9 per cent and 1.2 per cent, respectively, in October from a year earlier, affecting a combined CPI rise of about 0.49 percentage points. Transport and communications prices fell by 3.5 per cent, affecting CPI by about 0.42 percentage points, of which gasoline and diesel prices affected CPI by about 0.36 percentage points.
Since the beginning of this year, the state has further promoted the Internet to speed up and reduce fees to bring tangible benefits to consumers. Xu Lin, a Shanghai resident, said that three or four years ago, a data package of five gigabytes a month was about 200 yuan. This year, buying a 10G traffic package is only about 100 yuan, and it will be cheaper if there is a promotion.
According to the data, in the first three quarters, the three major communications operators implemented the requirements of increasing speed and reducing fees, and the average tariff for traffic fell by more than 30 percent, with a reduction of about 300 billion yuan.
Multi-measures to stabilize the supply of live pigs
Due to the superposition of epidemic situation and cyclical factors of classical swine fever in Africa, pork prices have risen obviously, which has become the main factor affecting the rise of CPI for a period of time.
Shandong Zibo Huaruiyuan Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd. currently has more than 5000 pigs. Jia Jiliang, manager of the company, said that the price of live pigs has continued to rise recently, and the enthusiasm of farmers has increased.
In interviews with reporters in various places, many farmers said that the current pig breeding profits, the government issued a series of policies to support large-scale breeding, is a good time for enterprises to expand production capacity.
The executive meeting of the State Council held on 6 November stressed that we should properly implement the system of overall responsibility for the province and the mayor of the "vegetable basket", continue to do more and resume pig production at the same time, and thoroughly clean up the unreasonable prohibition regulations in various localities. We should make use of the conditions such as the bumper harvest of corn in the north to better ensure the feed supply in the big provinces of pigs in the south, give full play to the role of reserve regulation, promote the production of poultry, beef and mutton, ensure market supply, standardize market order, and curb the excessive rise in the prices of some products. At the same time, all localities should comprehensively launch a linkage mechanism between social assistance and security standards and rising prices to ensure the basic livelihood of people in need.
According to the General Administration of Customs, in the first three quarters of this year, China imported 1.326 million tons of pork, an increase of 43.6 percent, and 1.132 million tons of beef, an increase of 53.4 percent, all of which reached a relatively high level.
Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the Bank of Communications, said that the recent pig grain price ratio as high as 15, 2.7 times the break-even point, will make greater efforts to attract the enthusiasm of pig farming. Since the second half of the year, the state has taken many measures to stabilize the supply of pork market, a large number of reserve meat into the market, increase pork imports, and vigorously encourage pig breeding, which will help to promote the balance of pork supply and demand.
"one of the short-term factors affecting the recent rise in pork prices is the expansion of the size of commercial sows converted to breeding sows driven by rising prices." Guo Liyan, a researcher at the Institute of Market and Price Research at the China Macroeconomic Research Institute, said that in the short term, the number of commercial sows has been reduced, which has formed a support for pork prices. However, from a longer period of time, after a certain breeding cycle, the supply of live pigs will be increased, creating favorable conditions for increasing the effective supply.
Industry insiders pointed out that due to the introduction of pig breeding from the introduction to the column cycle is longer, the full recovery of supply still has a period of time. I hope that society and the people will maintain a certain degree of patience, and that the state, departments, provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities are all actively taking action to ensure the resumption of production and the supply of meat.
Do not have the basis for an across-the-board rise in prices
Does the 3.8 per cent increase in CPI mean that prices are on the rise across the board?
In October, the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.1 per cent from the previous month, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and 1.5 per cent year-on-year, the same increase as the previous month, according to Shen Jie, a senior statistician in the cities department of the National Bureau of Statistics. For example, excluding the rise in pork prices, CPI rose about 0.1% month-on-month, up about 1.3% from the same period last year, and the overall stability.
"since the beginning of this year, the core CPI has remained stable, indicating that there is a relative balance between aggregate supply and aggregate demand in the macroeconomic system, and that there is no basis for a comprehensive rise in prices." Guo Liyan said that compared with the past few rounds of the overall price level into the upward cycle, the current CPI rise structural factors are obvious, the scope of influence is relatively clear and controllable.
Maintaining the basic stability of prices, especially pork and other important livelihood commodities, and ensuring the basic livelihood of the people, especially those in need, has a bearing on the vital interests of thousands of families and the overall situation of economic and social development.
The reporter learned from the National Development and Reform Commission that since the beginning of this year, various localities have paid a total of 5.51 billion yuan in temporary price subsidies, benefiting 222 million people in need. To a certain extent, it has alleviated the impact of rising food prices on the basic livelihood of people in need.
Yuan Da, spokesman for the National Development and Reform Commission, stressed that in the next step, efforts will be made to enhance supply capacity, to carry out reserve adjustment, and to ensure the basic livelihood of the people. "in view of the obvious rise in pork prices and the new changes in the price operation, we should further strengthen price monitoring, prediction and early warning, and increase the frequency of monitoring and warning of price changes in key areas, key varieties, especially pork and other important livelihood commodities. We will guide all localities to conscientiously implement the linkage mechanism in which social assistance and security standards are linked to rising prices, earnestly ensure the basic livelihood of people in need and key groups, and take timely regulatory measures according to needs to promote market supply and price stability. "