Keep the price stable and guarantee the supply to ensure the warmth of the masses for the winter
While increasing the supply of natural gas, the selling price of the terminal gas for residential use shall not be adjusted.
Keep the price stable and guarantee the supply to ensure the warmth of the masses for the winter
Since the beginning of this year, relevant departments and enterprises have solidly promoted the construction of a natural gas production, supply, storage and marketing system, focusing on the supply of resources, increasing domestic reserves and increasing production on the one hand, and diversified imports on the other, so as to ensure an adequate supply of natural gas. At the same time, according to the principle of "making changes by gas", we will promote coal to gas in an orderly manner, ensure that the increase in market demand tends to be stable, and ensure that the masses are safe and warm through the winter.
The heating season has arrived in the north. What is the situation of natural gas supply and demand? How to deal with the guarantee for the big examination?
Recently, the main person in charge of the Economic Operation Regulation Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission said that it is expected that this year's heating season, the overall energy demand will maintain a steady growth trend, and the overall supply and demand will be balanced, but may be affected by the persistence of large-scale extremely cold weather and other factors. There may be some pressure on the balance of supply and demand in some areas, some varieties and peak hours.
"through the preparation of the early supply guarantee work, as well as the targeted adjustment during the heating season, we can ensure that we can successfully meet the peak for the winter." The person in charge said.
Basic balance between supply and demand of natural gas
Since the beginning of this year, China's natural gas market has continued to operate smoothly. According to the statistics of KuaiBao operated by the National Development and Reform Commission, China's natural gas output in the first three quarters was 127.61 billion cubic meters, up 10.4 percent over the same period last year, and natural gas imports were 97.41 billion cubic meters, up 9.9 percent from the same period last year. The apparent consumption of natural gas was 222.46 billion cubic meters, up 10.3 percent from the same period last year.
At the "Winter Natural Gas supply and demand Forum 2019" held on November 8, Meng Yadong, director of the marketing department of the Natural Gas Branch of China Petrochemical Corporation, said that the growth rate of demand in the domestic natural gas market has slowed this year. At the same time, the "three major oils" and all kinds of gas supply enterprises, in accordance with the requirements for the construction of the production, supply, storage and marketing system, prepare winter resources in advance, actively implement the peak regulation responsibilities of all parties, and steadily carry out connectivity work. It is expected that the overall supply and demand of the domestic natural gas market will be basically balanced during the heating period this winter and next spring.
Wu Hongkun, deputy general manager of CNOOC Gas and Power Group Trading Company, said that the effect of domestic gas production in 2019 was significant, and import LNG maintained a high growth rate. On the demand side, the "coal to gas" policy is based on gas, and the increase in market demand will become more stable. On the supply side, under the overall planning of the state, resources are more adequate, connectivity continues to improve, initial preparations are adequate, winter supply plans are gradually improved, and it is expected to be basically able to meet demand.
According to Meng Yadong's analysis, taking into account factors such as price affordability, the overall demand of the domestic natural gas market in 2019 heating season is expected to be between 145 billion cubic meters and 150 billion cubic meters, an increase of about 5 to 8 percent over the actual consumption of the heating season in 2018. The peak monthly demand is about 33 billion cubic meters, an increase of 10 percent over the same period last year.
Yang Jun, senior vice president of Xinao Energy Holdings Limited, said that in the past three years, driven by environmental policies such as coal to gas and clean heating, demand for gas in winter has continued to rise, mainly reflected in both residential heating and industry. Take the northern urban gas enterprises as an example, the peak-to-valley ratio of natural gas consumption in winter and summer has exceeded 1:10. This winter heating season peak month is expected to appear in December, the national high month high daily demand is expected to exceed 1.1 billion cubic meters.
Yang Jianhong, chief analyst at Beijing Shichuang Energy Consulting Co., Ltd., said that through the analysis of China's natural gas supply potential, according to the results of the balance between supply and demand, although supply exceeds demand for the whole year, But supply exceeds demand and accounts for less than 1% of total demand, and natural gas supply and demand in 2019 is still a "tight balance". Combined with the law of natural gas use in previous years, because January next year is the Spring Festival, so the overall supply pressure this winter and next spring is not great, mainly depends on the high month or local time period.
"the preliminary forecast is that the effective demand in this winter will increase by about 7% over the previous winter. Although the contradiction between supply and demand has been alleviated, the overall supply guarantee situation is still relatively grim. " Li Wei, deputy general manager of the marketing department of PetroChina Natural Gas sales Branch (Kunlun Energy Co., Ltd.), believes that due to weather and other factors, supply tensions may still occur in some periods and in some areas. Meng Yadong also reminded that there is still a certain gap in demand in some areas, especially in North China, and it is necessary to focus on peak regulation and supply in the face of extreme weather conditions and emergencies.
Further improvement of security capacity
Since the beginning of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Energy Administration, together with various regions, relevant departments and enterprises, have continuously and solidly promoted the construction of a natural gas production, supply, storage and marketing system, and further improved their supply and guarantee capacity. Residents and other people's livelihood gas can be fully protected.
Around the supply of resources, we should focus on increasing domestic reserves and production on the one hand and multiple imports on the other. It is estimated that domestic production of natural gas will exceed 170 billion cubic meters in the whole year, with an increase of more than 11 billion cubic meters. The commissioning of the east China-Russia natural gas pipeline in early December will increase the supply of new resources, actively promote the diversification of (LNG) imports, sources and transportation modes, and maintain rapid import growth.
It is understood that from the "three major oil" situation, PetroChina has increased the intensity of domestic exploration and development, domestic gas in winter to maintain rapid growth; Strengthen the overall planning of import resources, closely track the gas supply capacity of natural gas resources in Central Asia, arrange the operation of China-Myanmar natural gas pipeline according to the maximum capacity, purchase spot LNG resources before the beginning of winter, and ensure normal gas supply on the eastern route of China and Russia at the beginning of December. Sinopec will continue to increase resource mobilization, including increased spot procurement, gas storage emergency gas production, and do a good job in ensuring supply. The increment of resources is mainly invested in 7 provinces and cities in the north, accounting for more than 40%; On the other hand, CNOOC will give full play to the advantages of mutual protection and mutual supply between imported LNG, natural gas produced at sea and coalbed methane produced on land, flexibly allocate resources, and comprehensively ensure the adequate supply of natural gas.
Around transportation, vigorously promote pipe network connectivity. Promoting the completion and commissioning of key projects as planned will effectively increase the gas supply capacity of channels such as "transporting gas from the south to the north" and "entering the northeast into customs" this year, and enhance the ability to ensure the supply of resources in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, and other northern regions.
In terms of promoting the construction of gas storage facilities, the country is expected to have a gas storage capacity of nearly 20 billion cubic meters by the heating season of 2019. In order to promote the storage of completed gas storage facilities, CNPC, Sinopec and CNOOC gas storage facilities have completed gas injection as planned to ensure supply and reserve resources in winter.
"guarantee both quantity and price" for residents
"on the whole, the resources for this year's heating season are guaranteed, and all preparatory work is adequate. As long as all parties make concerted efforts to put the established work arrangements in place, we will be able to ensure the safe and stable supply of natural gas. " The head of the National Development and Reform Commission said.
This year, nearly 3.2 million new "coal to gas" users have been added in key northern provinces, and the demand for new gas is expected to exceed 3.8 billion cubic meters during the heating season.
The conversion of coal to gas is carried out in an orderly manner in accordance with the principle of "changing from coal to gas". All users of "changing coal to gas" must sign a contract before carrying out the transformation. It is understood that more than half of the new resources for this year's heating season will be allocated to key clean heating areas in the north. "until the energy supply and safe and stable operation of the new clean heating facilities are implemented, the original heating facilities must not be demolished, and the 'double insurance' method of ensuring the bottom of clean coal pockets will never be adopted to keep the bottom line of the masses safe and warm through the winter." The person in charge said.
In the aspect of peak regulation, we should make a detailed list of 300 million cubic meters per day of non-residents who can interrupt peak regulation. The official said: this year, we will strive to do this work in a more orderly and stable manner, ensure the needs of the people's livelihood for the use of gas, and fully safeguard the needs of economic development and the production of enterprises. At present, the resources implemented are sufficient, and the peak regulation capacity of standby users is very abundant, which can ensure the needs of the people for the use of gas.
According to the requirements, during the heating season, all localities will no longer adjust the sales prices of gas terminals for residents. The price of the gas used by the residents shall not rise, and the price of the gas used by the people in schools, hospitals, public transport and other non-residents shall be "guaranteed and stable", which shall not exceed 20% on the basis of the price of the benchmark gate station. The prices of other market-oriented gas quantities shall be determined through consultation between the supply and demand sides.
Yang Jianhong suggested that the prediction and early warning of natural gas supply and demand should be strengthened through the prediction of temperature. Focus on temperature forecasts for December and January next year, as well as other extreme weather forecasts such as haze.
Experts said that promoting the market-oriented construction of natural gas and giving full play to the decisive role of the market in the allocation of resources is an effective means to improve the capacity of natural gas supply. To do a good job in the work of guaranteeing supply in winter, it is necessary for all parties to make concerted efforts and share the responsibility to build a community with a shared future. (reporter Xiong Li)