China will supplement more than 7000 passenger aircraft in the next 20 years
Xinhua News Agency, Xi'an, 14 Nov (Reporter Mao Haifeng and Fu Ruixia) China Aviation Industry Corporation Limited (hereinafter referred to as Aviation Industry) released the "Annual report on Civil aircraft China Market Forecast 2019-2038" in Xi'an on the 14th. It is expected that between 2019 and 2038, Chinese airlines will need to replenish 7630 passenger aircraft in order to meet the growth in traffic and the need to replace decommissioned aircraft.
On the 14th, the "2019 Regional Aviation and domestic Regional aircraft Development Forum" guided by the aviation industry was held in Xi'an, at which the aviation industry released its annual report to the media. According to the annual report, it is expected that in the next 20 years, with the continuous improvement of the management level of Chinese airlines and the continuous maturity of the air passenger transport market, the occupancy rate will continue to remain at a relatively high level of more than 84 percent. In order to meet the growing demand for passenger turnover, it is estimated that by 2038, the capacity of China's air passenger transport market will reach 4.36 trillion km, of which the demand for inland routes will be 3.17 trillion km. The capacity demand of international routes is 1.16 trillion km, and that of regional routes is 30 billion km.
From the composition of the fleet, the narrow-body trunk aircraft will still be the main aircraft of CAAC in the future. However, it should also be noted that at present, the capacity of some of the hub airports in China has been saturated, and the routes between the hub airports are facing the problem of airspace and airport congestion. Airlines will adopt more wide-body aircraft to deal with the problem of congestion. In particular, in Beijing, Shanghai, Beijing-Guangzhou and other first-tier cities between the route, the proportion of wide-body aircraft has exceeded 60%. At the same time, with the implementation of airline internationalization strategy, in order to meet the needs of long-range routes, the number of wide-body aircraft will increase.
Huang Yumin, deputy director of the China Aviation Industry Development Research Center, who participated in the annual report, said that it is expected that between 2019 and 2038, Chinese airlines will need to supplement 7630 passenger aircraft, of which 1460 will be required for wide-body trunk aircraft. The demand for narrow trunk aircraft is 5168 and that for regional aircraft is 1002. The aircraft with the largest demand is the 150-seat narrow-body trunk aircraft, which accounts for 52% of the total aircraft demand.