"there is a foundation in the long term and support in the short term"-- looking at the trend of economic operation from the data in October
Beijing, 14 Nov (Xinhua) the title: "long-term foundation, short-term support"-- looking at the trend of economic operation from the October data
Xinhua News Agency reporters Chen Weiwei and Wang Yuxiao
The National Bureau of Statistics released the main data on the operation of the economy in October. Although the growth rate of some indicators fluctuated during the month, the economy remained generally stable. According to expert analysis, at present, there are many uncertain factors of external instability and increased downward pressure on the economy, but there are also many favorable conditions to support the smooth operation of China's economy. Efforts should be made to implement the policies already issued and do a good job in the "six stable" work. Withstand the downward pressure of the economy and promote high-quality economic development.
Keep the operation stable as a whole
In October, the growth rate of industrial value added, the index of service industry production, and the total retail sales of consumer goods slowed down from the previous month.
"some indicators fluctuate due to short-term factors. But looking at the current economic situation, it would be more reasonable and objective to look at the overall situation from January to October. " Liu Aihua, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said.
In terms of production, the value added of industries above the national scale increased by 5.6% from January to October compared with the same period last year, the same growth rate as in January and September. From the perspective of internal structure, the added value of high-tech industries increased by 8.7% compared with the same period last year, and new industries and new products maintained rapid growth. From January to October, the service industry production index grew by 7%, the same as in the previous three quarters, while the modern service industry grew better.
In terms of demand, from January to October, the total volume of retail sales of consumer goods increased by 8.1% from the same period last year, basically the same as in the previous three quarters, and the consumption of upgraded goods maintained rapid growth. From January to October, fixed asset investment increased 5.2% from the same period last year, down slightly from the previous three quarters, but the internal structure continued to optimize, and investment in high-tech industries increased by 14.2% compared with the same period last year.
Employment is a prominent bright spot in the current economic operation. From January to October, 11.93 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country, achieving the goal of creating more than 11 million new jobs in cities and towns in the whole year ahead of schedule. In October, the national urban unemployment rate was 5.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.
In addition, export growth changed from a decline to an increase in October, and the structure of foreign trade was also being optimized.
"Economic operation has continued to maintain an overall steady and steady development trend, and the main indicators are still running within a reasonable range. But at the same time, we should also be soberly aware that at present, external instability and uncertainty continue to increase, domestic structural contradictions are still relatively prominent, and there are still many risks and challenges to economic operation. " Liu Aihua said.
Price increases show structural characteristics
CPI rose 3.8 per cent in October from a year earlier, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. Liu Aihua analyzed that this is mainly driven by the rise in food prices, especially the price of livestock and meat.
In October, food prices rose 15.5 per cent from a year earlier, with pork prices rising 101.3 per cent year-on-year, affecting CPI by about 2.43 percentage points, accounting for nearly 2/3 of the total year-on-year increase in CPI. For the month, core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 1.5 per cent.
"the current price increases continue to show structural characteristics." Liu Aihua said that CPI rose 2.6% from January to October from a year earlier, still within the expected target of about 3% at the beginning of the year.
In view of the current fluctuation of demand indicators and the expansion of price increases, Tang Jianwei, chief researcher at the Financial Research Center of the Bank of Communications, believes that, on the one hand, macro policies should increase counter-cyclical regulation and expansion of demand and steady growth. Focus on alleviating the downward pressure on the manufacturing industry; On the other hand, it is necessary to guard against structural price increases, especially to prevent and control the spillover effect of pork prices, such as beef and mutton, chicken, aquatic products, and other meat prices, and stabilize the supply of meat food.
Continue to run smoothly and have support
The downward pressure increases, how to study and judge the economic trend?
"there is a foundation in the long term and support in the short term." Liu Aihua analyzed that after long-term development, China has accumulated a solid foundation, and China's economy has sufficient resilience, great potential, and vigorous vitality. In the short term, there is still a lot of support for the economy to continue to run smoothly.
Consumption potential continues to be unleashed. From November 1 to 11 this year, online retail sales nationwide exceeded 870 billion yuan. In addition, from the measured results, in the first 10 months, service consumption continued to maintain a growth rate of more than 10%.
The momentum of industrial upgrading has increased. High-tech manufacturing and high-tech service industries have maintained rapid growth, and the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries have been continuously promoted. Car production, which has been running at a low level so far this year, has also shown signs of improvement, with the decline in car production narrowing in October and the growth of added value in the auto industry accelerating.
The vitality of openness continues to be released. Since the beginning of this year, China has vigorously promoted trade diversification and trade facilitation and continuously optimized the business environment. With the scale of global capital flows shrinking, China's use of foreign capital rose 6.5% in the first three quarters of this year compared with the same period last year, indicating that China continues to be a hot spot for foreign investment.
The effect of the policy continues to show. Measures such as reducing taxes and fees on a large scale and optimizing the business environment have reduced the burden on enterprises and stimulated the vitality of enterprises. In the first 10 months, nearly 20,000 new enterprises were registered every day.
Liu Aihua believes that with the gradual effectiveness of the counter-cyclical regulation policy, it will help to give full play to the opportunities and advantages that exist in the medium to long term. "We have the foundation, the conditions and the confidence to achieve the expected target for the whole year, and the economy will continue to develop healthily," he said.