China's economy: long-term Foundation and short-term support
Economic data for October before the release of the National Bureau of Statistics
China's economy: long-term Foundation and short-term support
The target of new urban employment for the whole year was exceeded in advance. In October, exports rose from a decline to an increase of 2.1% over the same period last year. Investment in high-tech industries increased by more than 14% over the same period last year. On November 14, the National Bureau of Statistics released national economic data for October before it was released. Although some of the indicators showed short-term fluctuations, the economic report card was still bright in the first 10 months. Liu Aihua, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a news conference held on the same day that the main indicators are still operating within a reasonable range, and that China's economy has a long-term foundation and short-term support.
There is a steady and progressive situation that has not changed.
Macroeconomic performance is usually judged by key indicators such as growth, employment, prices and balance of payments. Combining these aspects, Liu Aihua said that the main indicators are still running within a reasonable range.
The sustainable development of the three industries. The overall situation of agricultural production this year is relatively good, grain production is expected to achieve another bumper harvest, at the same time, the agricultural production structure is also being continuously adjusted. From January to October, the value added of industries above scale increased by 5.6% year-on-year, the same rate as in the previous three quarters. From January to October, the service industry production index grew by 7%, also the same as in the previous three quarters, and many service consumption still maintained rapid growth.
Domestic demand has expanded steadily. From the perspective of retail sales, the total volume of retail sales of consumer goods rose 8.1% from January to October from a year earlier, basically the same as in the previous three quarters. From the perspective of investment, the growth rate of investment is generally stable, in which investment in high-tech industries has maintained double-digit growth, enhancing the staying power for the growth of new momentum.
Employment prices are generally stable. In the first 10 months, 11.93 million of new urban jobs were created, exceeding the expected target of 11 million for the whole year ahead of schedule. The unemployment rate of the national urban survey in October was 5.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from September. Between January and October, CPI rose 2.6 per cent from a year earlier, still within the expected target of about 3 per cent at the start of the year.
Foreign trade and foreign investment have improved. Exports improved significantly in October from a year earlier, rising 2.1 per cent in October from a year earlier. From the perspective of foreign investment, the actual use of foreign capital in January-September increased by 6.5% compared with the same period last year, and maintained a relatively rapid growth rate. In addition, foreign exchange reserves remained above US $3 trillion, an increase from the beginning of the year.
"some indicators fluctuated in October under the influence of short-term factors, or should the overall situation from January to October be more reasonable and objective." Liu Aihua said: on the whole, the overall situation of economic stability and steady progress has not changed.
Bright employment and moderate prices as a whole
In the overall economic performance, employment indicators are particularly bright, how to treat the good performance of employment under the downward pressure of the economy?
Liu Aihua analyzes, first of all, the total effect brought about by the continuous expansion of the total economic output. GDP maintained a medium-to-high growth rate of 6.2 per cent in the first three quarters of this year. It is estimated that for every 1 percentage point of current economic growth, employment will be driven by about 2 million. An economic growth rate of 6.2 per cent is equivalent to total employment between 11 million and 12 million.
The second is the factor of structural adjustment. In recent years, China's industrial structure has changed from industry-led to service-oriented. By 2018, the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP has increased to 52.2%. Compared with industry, the service industry has a stronger ability to absorb labor force.
At present, more and more new business type support flexible employment, innovation and entrepreneurship emerge in endlessly; a series of stable employment policies have been issued, especially to solve the employment of key groups play a very important role.
In addition, CPI rose 3.8 per cent year-on-year in October, 0.8 percentage points higher than last month. The price level affects the pockets of the people. What do you think of the 3.8% increase?
Liu Aihua explained that the current price increases continue to show the characteristics of structural increases. In terms of CPI as a whole, it was mainly driven by food prices, which rose 15.5 per cent in October from a year earlier, driving CPI up 3.05 percentage points. There are also structural characteristics in food, with pork prices rising the fastest. Excluding food and energy prices, core CPI rose 1.5 per cent, the same as last month.
Liu Aihua said that at present, the overall CPI is still in a moderate upward trend. With the resumption of live pig production policies and measures gradually implemented on the ground, live pig production capacity will be gradually restored, pork prices will gradually stabilize.
Have the conditions to keep the economy running smoothly
The downward pressure on the economy continues to increase, how to look at the trend of the future economy?
Liu Aihua said: in the long run, we have accumulated a solid material foundation. Infrastructure is becoming more and more perfect, the industrial system is gradually complete, human resources are very rich, high-quality talents are increasing, and the scale of the market is also growing. China's economy has enough resilience, great potential, but also vigorous vitality. In the short term, there is still a lot of support for the economy to continue to run smoothly.
-- consumption potential continues to be unleashed. The stable employment situation has brought about a steady increase in income, which has laid a very good foundation for the improvement of consumption and the expansion of capacity. At present, retail sales of physical goods have maintained relatively rapid growth, and the growth rate of service consumption has continued to be more than 10%, and the speed is even faster.
-- Industrial upgrading has continued to advance. Judging from the October data, the car production, which has continued to grow at a low level so far this year, has also shown signs of improvement. In October, the decline in car production narrowed in October, and the output of SUV, MPV, and other models changed from the decline to the rise. It shows that the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries continue to move forward.
-- the vitality of openness continues to emerge. Since the beginning of this year, China has taken a large number of policy measures to promote trade, investment diversification and facilitation. In the first three quarters of this year, the use of foreign capital rose 6.5 per cent from a year earlier, in the face of shrinking global capital flows, suggesting that China remains a hot spot for foreign investment.
-- the effect of the policy continues to show. In the first 10 months, the country's daily average of nearly 20,000 newly registered enterprises continued to accelerate growth on the basis of last year's rapid growth. Both the manufacturing production activity expectation index and the non-manufacturing business activity expectation index remain in the relatively high economic range, and there are some new signs of improvement in investment this month, indicating that business confidence is gradually recovering.
"in the future, we have the foundation, the conditions and the confidence to achieve the expected target for the whole year, and the economy will continue to develop healthily." Liu Aihua said. (reporter Li Jie)