October economic data show that China's economy-- "long-term foundation, short-term support"
Source: national Bureau of Statistics
On November 14, at a news conference released by the National Bureau of Statistics, October economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's employment indicators are improving, but investment, consumption and other indicators have dropped slightly. How to look at the current situation and future trend of China's economy? "there is a foundation in the long term and support in the short term." Liu Aihua, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said.
11.93 million new jobs
Achieve the full-year target ahead of schedule
From January to October, 11.93 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country, achieving the goal of creating more than 11 million new jobs in cities and towns in the whole year ahead of schedule. Liu Aihua analyzed that the improvement in employment is mainly due to four major factors.
First of all, the total effect brought about by the continuous expansion of the total economic output. In the first three quarters of this year, China's GDP still maintained a medium-to high-speed growth rate of 6.2%, which can drive between 11 million and 12 million of the total employment.
Secondly, the factors of structural adjustment. In recent years, the trend of China's industrial structure adjustment from industrial-led to service-oriented is consolidating. By 2018, the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP has risen to 52.2%. Compared with industry, the service industry has a stronger ability to absorb labor.
Third, more and more new business type support flexible employment, and the number of flexible employment is increasing.
Finally, the stable employment policy plays a positive role. In October, the unemployment rate of the national urban survey fell to 5.1% from 5.2% in September, and the employment situation of college graduates was gradually improving.
Core CPI 1.7%
The rise is structurally characterized.
In October, CPI rose 3.8 per cent from a year earlier, 0.8 percentage points higher than last month.
"the current price increases continue to show structural characteristics. In terms of CPI as a whole, it is mainly driven by food prices. " According to Liu Aihua, food prices rose 15.5 per cent in October from a year earlier, driving CPI up 3.05 percentage points and contributing 80 per cent to CPI. Non-food prices continued to maintain a relatively steady rise, rising 0.9% in the month, contributing only about 0.7 percentage points to the overall contribution.
Overall, the core CPI in October was only 1.5%, the same as last month. The core CPI in January-October was 1.7%, the same as in the previous three quarters. And CPI rose 2.6 per cent in January-October from a year earlier, still within the expected target of about 3 per cent at the start of the year. Therefore, the overall CPI is still in a moderate upward trend.
Liu Aihua said: governments at all levels have recently adopted various ways to increase pork supply, promptly launched a mechanism for linking social assistance and security standards with rising prices, and increased living subsidies for people in need. With the implementation of relevant policies and measures, live pig production capacity will gradually restore, pork prices will gradually stabilize.
Nearly 20,000 newly registered enterprises per day
The smooth operation of the economy is supported
In October, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value slowed to 4.7%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment fell to 5.2% from January to October, a new low for the year. Retail sales of consumer goods also slowed to 7.2 per cent in October from a year earlier, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. Is China's economy still growing?
Liu Aihua said: in the long run, China has accumulated a solid material foundation, the infrastructure is becoming increasingly perfect, the industrial system is gradually complete, human resources are very rich, high-quality talents are increasing, and the market scale is growing. China's economy has enough resilience, great potential, but also vigorous vitality.
In the short term, there is still a lot of support for the economy to continue to run smoothly.
Consumption potential continues to be unleashed. The stable employment situation this year has brought about a steady increase in income, thus laying the foundation for the upgrading and expansion of consumption. In particular, the growth of service consumption is relatively faster.
Industrial upgrading has continued to push forward. On the one hand, the high-tech manufacturing industry and high-tech service industry have maintained relatively rapid growth; on the other hand, the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries are also moving forward.
The vitality of openness continues to emerge. "in the first three quarters of this year, China's use of foreign capital increased by 6.5% compared with the same period last year, which is 6.5% in the face of shrinking global capital flows, indicating that China continues to be a hot spot for foreign investment." Liu Aihua said.
The effect of the policy continues to show. This year, China has implemented measures such as reducing taxes and fees on a large scale and optimizing the business environment. In the first 10 months, China's daily average of nearly 20,000 newly registered enterprises, on the basis of last year's rapid growth continued to accelerate the growth. From the perspective of the expected index of manufacturing production activity and the expected index of non-manufacturing business activity in PMI, they all remain in the relatively high economic range. (reporter Lu Yanan)