The policy of increasing stable growth and countercyclical regulation will accelerate landing.
Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, 15 Nov (Reporter Ban Juanjuan) on 15 November, the Economic Information News published a report entitled "stable growth and increasing code counter-cyclical regulation policy will accelerate landing." The article said that October macroeconomic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 14th showed that some indicators fluctuated due to short-term factors, but the overall economy remained stable and progressive. The upgrading of the structure of major indicators such as industry, investment and consumption continues. Experts pointed out that the economic trend "has a long-term foundation and short-term support" and is fully based, conditional, and confident in achieving the expected target for the whole year. It is worth mentioning that the fourth quarter steady growth season, a package of blockbuster measures were introduced, the State Council level held for three consecutive days of meetings also released a number of positive signals.
It is learned that the next step of the counter-cyclical adjustment policy will increase and land, further boost infrastructure investment by reducing the minimum capital ratio, promote the commencement of major projects as soon as possible, and will also speed up the construction of short board projects. Promote effective investment and industrial upgrading. We will step up efforts to support the development of advanced manufacturing and emerging services, and further unleash the potential of the huge market. Experts pointed out that as the relevant policies accelerate the landing and continue to be effective, the economy is expected to further stabilize and improve quality next year, laying a solid foundation for achieving a well-off society in an all-round way.
From January to October, the added value of industries above scale increased by 5.6% over the same period last year, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 8.1%, and investment in fixed assets increased by 5.2%. "the cumulative growth rate of indicators in major economic sectors is still basically the same as in the previous three quarters, indicating that the overall situation of economic operation has not changed greatly, and has still maintained a trend of steady operation." Liu Aihua, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a news conference at the New Office of the National Bureau of Statistics on the 14th.
The economic structure is also continuing to optimize. On the industrial front, in October, the added value of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing increased by 8.3 percent and 6.5 percent respectively over the same period last year, 3.6 and 1.8 percentage points higher than that of industries of full scale and above, respectively. In terms of consumption, the national online retail sales of physical goods increased by 19.8% from January to October, which was 11.7 percentage points higher than the total retail sales of consumer goods in the same period. In terms of investment, investment in high-tech industries increased by 14.2% from January to October, 1.2 percentage points faster than in the previous three quarters.
"on the aggregate demand side, the troika has a bright spot. The growth rate of investment in fixed assets rebounded from the previous month, and the total retail sales of consumer goods grew at a nominal rate of 8.3% after deducting automobile consumption. Under the low base effect, the import and export data both improved, the export performance stabilized and rebounded, and the dawn of economic stabilization appeared initially in the fourth quarter. " Lin Zhiyuan, deputy director of the Macroeconomic Research Center of Xiamen University, told the Economic reference News.
Business confidence in economic development is also growing. "both the expected index of manufacturing production activity and the expected index of non-manufacturing business activity remained in the high economic range, and the total investment in new projects from January to October narrowed to about 4%. The decline from the lowest point of the year has narrowed by nearly 8 percentage points, and business investment confidence is gradually recovering. " Liu Aihua said.
Liu Aihua also pointed out: in the next step, we should adhere to the bottom line thinking, adhere to the general tone of seeking progress in stability, strive to implement the various policies that have been issued, do a good job in policy coordination and linkage, and enhance the resilience of economic development.
Since entering the fourth quarter, a series of steady growth blockbuster measures have been introduced intensively. The three consecutive days of meetings held at the level of the State Council alone have sent a number of positive signals. The forum of experts and entrepreneurs on the economic situation on the 12th proposed to make better use of the counter-cyclical adjustment tools of macro policies, strengthen support for the real economy, especially small, micro, and private enterprises, and optimize the use of special debts by local governments. Expand effective investment and other measures.
The standing Committee of the State Council on the 13th decided to reduce the minimum capital ratio for some infrastructure projects. Industry projects in the area of infrastructure and other countries that encourage development can raise capital through the issuance of equity-based and equity-based financial instruments. The signals released at the forum on the economic situation and ensuring basic people's livelihood in some provinces on the 14th included speeding up the construction of short-board projects and promoting effective investment and industrial upgrading. We will strengthen the support of new momentum to the economy and support the development of advanced manufacturing and emerging services.
Guotai Junan Securities Chief Macro analyst Gao Ruidong told the Economic reference News that the current government has taken more measures to stabilize growth and continue to strengthen counter-cyclical regulation and control. For example, the appropriate reduction in medium-term lending facilitates (MLF) interest rates, promoting a reduction in the financing costs of the real economy; We will reduce the capital ratio of some infrastructure projects, broaden the ways to raise capital for encouraging development projects, further improve the efficiency of the use of financial funds, and meet the needs of diversified allocation of social funds.
"there is still room for countercyclical adjustment of monetary policy, which will further reduce financing costs, improve market liquidity and boost market confidence. The focus of fiscal policy will be on new infrastructure and advanced manufacturing industries. At the same time, we will continue to vigorously support the development of the new economy and guide the transformation of private investment to the information industry and high-end service industries. " Zhang Haibing, vice president of the Huanbo New Economic Research Institute, told the Economic Information News.
What do you think of the future economic trend? "in a word, 'there is a foundation in the long term and support in the short term.'" Liu Aihua said: in the long run, we have accumulated a solid material foundation, increasingly perfect infrastructure, gradually complete industrial system, rich human resources, increasing number of high-quality talents, and growing market scale. In the short term, there is still a lot of support for the economy to continue to operate smoothly. The potential of consumption continues to be released, the kinetic energy of industrial upgrading continues to accumulate, the vitality of opening up continues to appear, and the effects of policies continue to emerge. In the future, we have the foundation, the conditions and the confidence to achieve the expected goals for the whole year, and the economy will continue to develop healthily.
Gao Ruidong believes that fiscal policy will be more active, monetary policy will strengthen the service of the real economy, and further reduce the financing costs of enterprises. At the same time, the government will continue to deepen reform, open wider to the outside world, promote consumption, stimulate the investment vitality of private enterprises, promote "six stable", and maintain the smooth operation of the economy.
Zhang Jun, chief economist at Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, told the Economic reference News that with the optimization of the medium-and long-term loan structure, the increase in bank support for supporting special debt projects will become an important factor in stabilizing infrastructure investment. At present, targeted policy adjustments to special debt projects will also promote the stabilization and recovery of infrastructure construction. In addition, it is expected that future policies will still accelerate the cultivation of new momentum, that is, increase investment in the development of emerging industries, continue to promote industrial transformation, and further contribute to stable growth by increasing the contribution rate of new industries to economic development.