Why GDP increased by nearly 1.9 trillion yuan, how to ensure data quality, how to make use of census results-- three questions on the hot spots of the fourth national economic census
Beijing, 22 Nov (Xinhua) Why GDP increased by nearly 1.9 trillion yuan, how to ensure data quality, and how to make use of census results-- three questions on the hotspots of the fourth National Economic Census
Xinhua News Agency "Xinhua Viewpoint" reporter Chen Weiwei
According to the results of China's gross domestic product ((GDP)) accounting system and the fourth National Economic Census, the preliminary GDP accounting figures for 2018 have been revised, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on the 22nd. Centering on the hot issues of social concern, the Xinhua Viewpoint reporter interviewed the relevant responsible persons of the leading Group Office of the fourth National Economic Census of the State Council and the National Bureau of Statistics.
Q: why did GDP increase by nearly 1.9 trillion yuan after the census?
"the revision of the GDP preliminary accounting figures for 2018 is mainly aimed at the changes in the basic data after the economic census and is carried out in strict accordance with the annual GDP accounting plan for the economic census formulated by the National Bureau of Statistics." The head of the Accounting Department of the National Bureau of Statistics said that the total amount and range of the revised 2018 GDP increased by 1.8972 trillion yuan and 2.1 per cent, respectively, compared with the preliminary accounts. Compared with the GDP growth of 16.8%, 4.4% and 3.4% in the previous three economic census years, the annual GDP revision of this census is the smallest.
It is understood that the GDP revision increased by nearly 1.9 trillion yuan, mainly from the tertiary industry. From a structural point of view, after the revision, the added value of the primary industry increased slightly, the added value of the secondary industry decreased by 116.6 billion yuan, and the added value of the tertiary industry increased by 2.0126 trillion yuan.
The reporter learned that according to the provisions of China's GDP accounting and data release system, annual GDP accounting includes two steps: preliminary accounting and final verification. The preliminary accounting of the annual GDP was completed in January of the following year, and the final verification of the annual GDP was completed in January of the following year.
The timeliness of the annual GDP preliminary audit is very strong, and the basic data are based on monthly and quarterly data. Since then, with the continuous increase of basic information, especially the submission of annual financial information, in accordance with the common practice of countries, GDP data should be revised in due course on the basis of more comprehensive and reliable basic information. In the year of economic census, the preliminary accounting of GDP should be revised according to the more comprehensive and detailed economic census data.
Li Xiaochao, deputy director of the leading Group Office of the fourth National Economic Census of the State Council and deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that whether GDP should be revised mainly depends on whether accounting methods and data sources have changed. If these two aspects change, the GDP will have to be revised, which is also an international practice.
According to Li Xiaochao's analysis, 2018 is the year of the economic census. The fourth national economic census covers all legal persons, industrial activity units, and individual business households engaged in the secondary and tertiary industries in China. It provides comprehensive and rich basic data for GDP accounting.
Q: how can the quality of economic census data be guaranteed?
The authenticity and accuracy of the data is not only the core requirement of the economic census, but also the most fundamental criterion to judge the success of the census. The reporter learned that the fourth National Economic Census has taken a series of measures to ensure the quality of the census data.
-- there has been a marked increase in the investigation and punishment of violations of discipline and violations of discipline in the general survey. This census strictly implements the newly revised regulations on the National Economic Census, and establishes and improves the mechanism for tracing the quality of census data and asking for responsibility. The reporter combed and found that in April, May and June this year, the National Bureau of Statistics successively notified the illegal cases of economic census in Baicheng City, Jilin Province, Honghe Prefecture, Yunnan Province, and Guanghan City, Sichuan Province. Exposed the illegal intervention of census objects independent and true report of census data and other census fraud, fraud.
Xian Zude, deputy director of the leading Group Office of the fourth National Economic Census of the State Council and deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that during the census, the State Council Economic and General Administration Office accepted a total of 61 clues to report violations of laws and discipline in the census. A total of 39 cases of violations of law and discipline were investigated and inspected by law enforcement, and cases of violations of the law in the economic census were reported in a timely manner.
Innovative means to control the quality of data at the source. The census expanded the scope of direct reporting units on the Internet, used the handheld mobile terminal (PAD) to collect data, and for the first time applied the industry code automatic identification and coding technology to promote the data fusion of big data and the census, and greatly improve the efficiency of data acquisition and processing.
Optimize the process and strengthen the quality spot check after the event. The reporter learned that the State Council organized by the General Administration Office conducted the largest post-mortem quality spot check in the history of the economic census. Spot checks were carried out on 249 sample counties (cities, districts and banners), 996 sample survey districts and 21808 units in 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China.
Zeng Yuping, executive deputy director of the leading Group Office of the fourth National Economic Census of the State Council and presidential planner of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the sampling method adopted the "re-investigation type" to replace the previous "return visit type" which used the census registration data as a reference. The results of spot check are more objective and accurate. The results of ex post quality spot check show that the comprehensive error rate of census data is 1.09%, and the quality of census data meets the control standard.
Q: how can census data be of greater value?
The economic census is like a comprehensive "physical examination" of the national economy. The fourth National Economic Census has found out the household background of the secondary and tertiary industries in China, and obtained valuable data. So, how do these vast amounts of data apply?
First of all, because the census data are more detailed than the conventional data, historical and economic data should be revised in accordance with international practice and the actual situation.
According to the person in charge of the Accounting Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, after the census, it is necessary to revise the historical data of GDP as well as the historical data of regional gross domestic product. At present, according to the census data, the preliminary accounting figures and historical data of the regional gross domestic product of each province (autonomous region and municipality directly under the Central Government) in 2018 are being systematically revised.
In addition, the statistical department has long made it clear that it is necessary to make use of the opportunity of this economic census to promote the reform of unified accounting of regional gross domestic product. Li Xiaochao said: at present, all preparations for the reform of unified accounting of regional gross domestic product are ready and will be formally implemented early next year.
Second, census data will provide important support for macro decision-making. Xian Zude said: the census comprehensively and accurately reflects the new progress in reform and development, and provides scientific and accurate statistical support for strengthening and improving macro-control and deepening supply-side structural reform. At the same time, the census will provide a solid data basis for summing up the achievements of the 13th five-year Plan and planning the development of the 14th five-year Plan, and will also provide experience for the upcoming Seventh National population Census and the Poverty Relief Census.
Third, after the release of the main results of the census, it will enter the stage of development of census data. According to the fourth National Economic Census Program, the statistical departments will establish and improve the relevant databases of the economic census, and will carry out macro and thematic analysis and research on the hot issues of concern to the party committees and governments at all levels and all sectors of society.
"We will work with all relevant parties to make good use of the census data, promote the open sharing of data, ensure that the census results are taken from the people, use them to the people, maximize their effectiveness, and provide a solid statistical guarantee for promoting high-quality development." Xian Zude said.